Iran Conflict Could Escalate Economic Risks if War Drags On

Economists say the war against Iran is driving energy prices upward, but the broader impact on U.S. inflation and consumer spending appears modest so far. Crude oil futures surged roughly 7% after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes, while natural gas futures rose 3.25%.

The main concern centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil passes. Any prolonged disruption there could ripple across global supply chains and fuel costs.

Experts caution that if the conflict ends quickly, the economic fallout will remain limited. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi noted that while the military conflict is devastating, “the economic fallout has been limited, at least so far.”

If the war drags on, however, risks could escalate potentially reshaping inflation expectations, consumer confidence, and market volatility.

The U.S. economy appears resilient enough to absorb the initial shock from the Iran conflict, much as it has weathered past disruptions like tariffs and tensions over Federal Reserve independence. Economists note that while crude oil futures surged about 7% and natural gas futures rose 3.25% following the strikes, these increases remain smaller than past energy shocks, such as the COVID-19 crisis or the 2019 Saudi oil facility attack.

Gas prices are expected to rise by 10 to 30 cents per gallon, with diesel costs climbing even higher. If the conflict ends quickly, the overall impact on inflation and consumer spending will likely remain modest. However, a prolonged war could push oil prices significantly higher, stoking inflation, undermining consumer confidence, and slowing economic growth.

Analysts emphasize that the Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk factor. Any sustained disruption to oil or natural gas flows through this chokepoint could elevate volatility across markets and reshape inflation expectations. For now, the economy is holding steady, but the duration and scope of the conflict will determine whether this remains a temporary blip or evolves into a deeper economic challenge.

Whether the war with Iran causes only a temporary blip or evolves into a deeper economic crisis depends largely on its duration. As of Monday morning, the rise in oil prices ranked as the 38th-highest spike since 1990 smaller than shocks seen during COVID-19 or the 2019 drone attack on Saudi oil facilities.

Gas prices are expected to climb by 10 to 30 cents per gallon in the coming weeks, while diesel could rise by double that amount, according to GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan. Economists caution that if the conflict ends quickly, the U.S. economy will likely remain resilient, with only modest inflationary effects.

However, a prolonged war could push oil prices significantly higher, stoking inflation, undermining consumer confidence, and dragging on economic growth. The Strait of Hormuz remains the critical chokepoint any sustained disruption there could ripple across global energy markets and magnify risks for households and businesses alike.

In short, the immediate impact looks manageable, but the longer the conflict persists, the greater the threat to inflation stability and economic momentum.

Economists broadly agree that the immediate impact of the Iran conflict on the U.S. economy is modest, but the risks grow if the war drags on. Kristian Ker of LPL Financial noted that energy markets are the primary channel through which the crisis could affect global markets. Any sustained disruption to oil or natural gas flows especially if severe and long-lasting could influence inflation expectations, weigh on business confidence, and elevate volatility across asset classes.

Tom Porcelli of Wells Fargo Economics emphasized that even sustained increases of 10% to 30% in oil prices would not, by themselves, generate a U.S. recession or dramatically alter core inflation. He stressed that absent a prolonged war and major disruptions to shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, the impact on U.S. growth and monetary policy should remain modest.

Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics added that while the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran may not significantly affect the global economy in isolation, risks could compound if shocks pile up. For example, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could be magnified by renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea or underestimated Iranian capabilities to sustain supply interruptions.

The Iran conflict has so far produced only a modest economic shock in the U.S., with gas prices expected to rise by 10 30 cents per gallon and diesel by more. Crude oil’s 7% jump ranks far below past energy crises, and economists stress that the U.S. economy remains resilient to short-term volatility.

The real risk lies in duration: a prolonged war or compounded disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and other shipping routes could push energy prices much higher, stoke inflation, erode consumer confidence, and weigh on growth. For now, the impact is limited, but the longer the conflict drags on, the greater the chance it evolves into a broader economic challenge.