Top Stocks Poised to Benefit From Venezuela’s Political Upheaval & Market Shifts

The United States is preparing sweeping changes for Venezuela’s oil industry following the ouster of the country’s president, and shares of several American companies are already reacting to the upheaval. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that the U.S. will control Venezuelan oil sales “indefinitely,” directing proceeds to American banks while rolling back sanctions that have restricted crude exports for years. Refiners Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) and Phillips 66 (PSX) saw their stock prices rise on the news.

Chevron (CVX), the only U.S. oil major still operating in Venezuela, stands in a unique position. Its established presence could translate into billions in potential gains if the Trump administration delivers on its pledge to rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector.

Despite holding more proven reserves than any other nation, Venezuela’s oil production has been crippled by years of economic turmoil, corruption, and sanctions. With U.S. involvement, the revitalization of Venezuela’s oil industry could unlock significant opportunities for American energy companies positioned to benefit from renewed exports and reconstruction efforts.

Stocks Positioned For Gains

Typically, U.S. investors gain access to foreign markets through brokers trading on overseas exchanges or via American depositary receipts (ADRs), which allow foreign stocks to be traded on U.S. exchanges. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also provide exposure to many countries and regions.

Venezuela, however, offers none of these options. No ADRs tied to Venezuelan companies trade on American exchanges, and no Venezuela-focused ETF currently exists though Teucrium Investment Advisors filed for one on Jan. 5. That leaves investors with indirect plays: U.S.-listed companies positioned to benefit from Venezuela’s potential recovery.

These companies fall into four categories: producers already operating in Venezuela; other major oil firms with outstanding debts from before their exit; services companies likely to secure reconstruction contracts; and Gulf Coast refiners built to process Venezuela’s heavy crude.

The One Oil Major Left in Venezuela

Chevron (CVX) remains the only American oil major still operating in Venezuela. Through joint ventures with PDVSA, the state-owned oil company, Chevron accounts for roughly a quarter of the nation’s output and exports about 140,000 barrels per day. Morningstar analyst Allen Good has noted that Chevron is the best-positioned among global oil majors to benefit from Venezuela’s potential energy sector recovery.

Oil Majors That Could Return to the Country

ConocoPhillips (COP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) exited Venezuela after the 2007 nationalizations but still hold outstanding claims of up to $12 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively, for expropriated property. JPMorgan analysts suggest these companies could return if the Venezuelan government allows them to recover seized assets.

Companies That Build Oil Infrastructure

Halliburton (HAL) and SLB (SLB) are positioned to benefit from Venezuela’s aging energy infrastructure. With pipelines over 50 years old and refineries running at less than 20% capacity, estimates indicate it could take $100 billion over a decade or more to restore production to 1990s levels. That represents years of potential contracts for service firms, should funding materialize.

Refiners That Can Handle Venezuela’s Heavy Crude

Valero (VLO): Michael Burry, known from “The Big Short,” disclosed ownership of Valero since 2020, citing Gulf Coast refineries as “purpose-built for Venezuelan heavy crude.” Valero operates 15 refineries capable of processing 3.2 million barrels per day of heavy, sour crude, potentially boosting margins across jet fuel, asphalt, and diesel.

Phillips 66 (PSX): CEO Mark Lashier highlighted that the company’s Lake Charles and Sweeny refineries can process hundreds of thousands of barrels per day of Venezuelan grades. He noted, however, that realizing Venezuela’s full potential would require years if not decades of upstream investment.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC): The Garyville refinery in Louisiana, the largest heavy crude processor in the region, could capture 20% to 30% of any increased Venezuelan flows to the Gulf Coast, according to analysts.

The Catch

The financial reality of Venezuela’s oil industry remains daunting. With prices hovering between $57 $60 per barrel, committing major capital in such a politically unstable environment is difficult to justify. Rystad Energy estimates it would take $53 billion just to sustain Venezuela’s current production of under 1 million barrels per day over the next 15 years. Returning output to the 3-million-barrel peak of the 1990s would require $183 billion and at least a decade of work.

Rystad’s chief economist Claudio Galimberti explained that new projects in Venezuela would only be profitable if oil sold at around $80 per barrel. At $60, “they won’t do it, because it makes no sense.” The opportunity cost is also significant: Bloomberg reports Guyana’s projects break even near $35 per barrel, while Permian Basin wells range between $37 and $48. With safer, cheaper barrels available elsewhere, Venezuela’s oil revival faces steep economic hurdles.

While Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, the economics of reviving its industry remain steep. With oil prices stuck near $57 $60 per barrel, investing billions in a politically unstable environment is difficult to justify. Rystad Energy estimates $53 billion would be needed just to sustain current output, while restoring production to 1990s peaks would require $183 billion and at least a decade of work. Competing opportunities in Guyana and the Permian Basin where break-even costs are far lower make Venezuela’s recovery a risky bet compared to safer, cheaper barrels elsewhere.